dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Donovan Mitchell points

Donovan Mitchell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · CLE · NBA · baseline 26/game (2026, 92 games)
26
Median
15-38
80% range
20-32
50% range
41
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

152638
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+90%
20+76%
25+56%
30+33%
35+16%
40+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Donovan Mitchell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts