dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Evan Mobley points

Evan Mobley: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · CLE · NBA · baseline 18/game (2026, 85 games)
17
Median
10-25
80% range
13-22
50% range
29
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

101725
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+98%
10+89%
15+65%
20+35%
25+11%
30+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Evan Mobley player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts