dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Josh Giddey rebounds

Josh Giddey: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · CHI · NBA · baseline 8.2/game (2026, 59 games)
8.0
Median
4.6-11.8
80% range
6.2-10.0
50% range
13.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.68.011.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
4.0+94%
6.0+77%
8.0+51%
10.0+25%
12.0+9%
14.0+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7053 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Giddey player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts