dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Austin Reaves points

Austin Reaves: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · LAL · NBA · baseline 23/game (2026, 61 games)
22
Median
11-34
80% range
17-28
50% range
37
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

112234
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+93%
15+80%
20+62%
25+38%
30+19%
35+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Austin Reaves player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts