dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Lonnie Walker IV three-pointers

Lonnie Walker IV: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · PHI · NBA · baseline 2.2/game (2025, 22 games)
2.0
Median
0.1-4.7
80% range
0.9-3.3
50% range
5.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.12.04.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+72%
2.0+49%
3.0+29%
4.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Lonnie Walker IV player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts