dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nic Claxton rebounds

Nic Claxton: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · BKN · NBA · baseline 7.0/game (2026, 73 games)
6.5
Median
2.7-11.7
80% range
4.5-9.3
50% range
13.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.76.511.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+95%
4.0+79%
6.0+58%
8.0+36%
10.0+20%
12.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nic Claxton player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts