dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nic Claxton assists

Nic Claxton: assistsFITTED MODEL

C · BKN · NBA · baseline 3.6/game (2026, 73 games)
3.4
Median
1.2-6.3
80% range
2.2-4.9
50% range
7.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.23.46.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+92%
2.0+78%
3.0+59%
4.0+38%
5.0+24%
6.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1376 C assists games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nic Claxton player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts