dfsforge / NBA forecasts / LaMelo Ball assists

LaMelo Ball: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · CHA · NBA · baseline 7.0/game (2026, 77 games)
6.8
Median
3.3-11.0
80% range
4.9-8.9
50% range
12.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.36.811.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+96%
4.0+84%
6.0+62%
8.0+35%
10.0+16%
12.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: LaMelo Ball player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts