dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Keon Johnson points

Keon Johnson: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · BKN · NBA · baseline 10.5/game (2025, 82 games)
9.9
Median
2.7-18.9
80% range
5.9-14.6
50% range
21.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.79.918.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+79%
10.0+49%
15.0+23%
20.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Keon Johnson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts