dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kevin Durant assists

Kevin Durant: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · HOU · NBA · baseline 4.6/game (2026, 83 games)
4.4
Median
1.8-7.9
80% range
2.8-6.1
50% range
8.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.84.47.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+88%
3.0+70%
4.0+56%
5.0+39%
6.0+26%
7.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kevin Durant player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts