dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Isaiah Hartenstein points

Isaiah Hartenstein: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · OKC · NBA · baseline 9.2/game (2026, 65 games)
8.4
Median
3.0-16.0
80% range
5.6-12.1
50% range
18.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.08.416.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
4.0+85%
6.0+71%
8.0+54%
10.0+39%
12.0+26%
14.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Isaiah Hartenstein player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts