dfsforge / NBA forecasts / RJ Barrett rebounds

RJ Barrett: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · NBA · baseline 5.3/game (2026, 69 games)
5.0
Median
1.7-9.3
80% range
3.2-7.3
50% range
10.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.75.09.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+88%
4.0+64%
6.0+38%
8.0+18%
10.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: RJ Barrett player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts