dfsforge / NBA forecasts / RJ Barrett assists

RJ Barrett: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · NBA · baseline 3.4/game (2026, 69 games)
3.1
Median
1.0-6.0
80% range
1.9-4.6
50% range
7.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.03.16.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+73%
3.0+52%
4.0+33%
5.0+20%
6.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: RJ Barrett player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts