dfsforge / NBA forecasts / D'Angelo Russell points

D'Angelo Russell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · DAL · NBA · baseline 9.7/game (2026, 29 games)
9.1
Median
2.7-17.8
80% range
5.2-13.3
50% range
20.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.79.117.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+76%
10.0+44%
15.0+18%
20.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: D'Angelo Russell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts