dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Steven Adams rebounds

Steven Adams: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · HOU · NBA · baseline 8.5/game (2026, 34 games)
8.4
Median
3.7-13.4
80% range
5.7-11.0
50% range
15.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.78.413.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
4.0+88%
6.0+73%
8.0+54%
10.0+34%
12.0+18%
14.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Steven Adams player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts