dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Walker Kessler points

Walker Kessler: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · UTAH · NBA · baseline 14/game (2026, 6 games)
13
Median
7-23
80% range
10-18
50% range
25
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

71323
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+96%
10+74%
15+42%
20+18%
25+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Walker Kessler player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts