dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Walker Kessler assists

Walker Kessler: assistsFITTED MODEL

C · UTAH · NBA · baseline 3.8/game (2026, 6 games)
3.6
Median
1.4-6.5
80% range
2.4-5.1
50% range
7.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.43.66.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+94%
2.0+82%
3.0+63%
4.0+42%
5.0+27%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1376 C assists games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Walker Kessler player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts