dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jaylen Nowell assists

Jaylen Nowell: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · NO · NBA · baseline 2.0/game (2025, 9 games)
1.6
Median
0.0-4.6
80% range
0.6-3.1
50% range
5.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.64.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+65%
2.0+40%
3.0+26%
4.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaylen Nowell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts