dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Davion Mitchell points

Davion Mitchell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · MIA · NBA · baseline 9.5/game (2026, 74 games)
8.9
Median
2.4-17.6
80% range
5.0-13.1
50% range
20.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.48.917.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+75%
10.0+43%
15.0+17%
20.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Davion Mitchell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts