dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jayson Tatum three-pointers

Jayson Tatum: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · BOS · NBA · baseline 3.0/game (2026, 22 games)
2.9
Median
0.9-5.0
80% range
1.8-4.0
50% range
6.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.92.95.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+89%
2.0+69%
3.0+42%
4.0+25%
5.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayson Tatum player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts