dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Tobias Harris points

Tobias Harris: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · DET · NBA · baseline 14/game (2026, 80 games)
13
Median
6-23
80% range
9-18
50% range
26
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

61323
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+93%
10+71%
15+41%
20+18%
25+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tobias Harris player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts