dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Rudy Gobert rebounds

Rudy Gobert: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · MIN · NBA · baseline 11.0/game (2026, 92 games)
11.1
Median
5.6-16.3
80% range
8.1-13.6
50% range
18.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.611.116.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
6.0+88%
8.0+76%
10.0+58%
12.0+40%
14.0+21%
16.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Rudy Gobert player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts