dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Rudy Gobert points

Rudy Gobert: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · MIN · NBA · baseline 10.3/game (2026, 92 games)
9.7
Median
3.8-17.5
80% range
6.3-13.7
50% range
19.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.89.717.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
4.0+89%
6.0+77%
8.0+63%
10.0+48%
12.0+35%
14.0+24%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Rudy Gobert player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts