dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Grant Williams rebounds

Grant Williams: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · CHA · NBA · baseline 3.8/game (2026, 38 games)
3.6
Median
0.8-7.5
80% range
1.9-5.4
50% range
8.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.67.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+73%
4.0+41%
6.0+19%
8.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Grant Williams player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts