dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Shane Drohan strikeouts (pitcher)

Shane Drohan: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · MIL · MLB · baseline 3.5/game (2026, 17 games)
3.2
Median
0.8-6.4
80% range
1.7-5.0
50% range
7.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.26.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+87%
2.0+70%
3.0+54%
4.0+38%
5.0+25%
6.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Shane Drohan player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts