dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Nolan McLean strikeouts (pitcher)

Nolan McLean: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · NYM · MLB · baseline 6.6/game (2026, 17 games)
6.6
Median
3.3-10.1
80% range
4.8-8.4
50% range
11.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.36.610.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+97%
4.0+84%
6.0+59%
8.0+30%
10.0+10%
12.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nolan McLean player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts