dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Matthew Boyd strikeouts (pitcher)

Matthew Boyd: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · CHC · MLB · baseline 5.3/game (2026, 7 games)
5.1
Median
2.2-8.7
80% range
3.5-6.8
50% range
9.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.25.18.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+81%
4.0+68%
5.0+52%
6.0+36%
7.0+23%
8.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Matthew Boyd player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts