dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Adam Mazur strikeouts (pitcher)

Adam Mazur: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · MIA · MLB · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 6 games)
2.9
Median
0.5-6.1
80% range
1.4-4.7
50% range
7.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.52.96.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+81%
2.0+66%
3.0+48%
4.0+34%
5.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Adam Mazur player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts