dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Michael Lorenzen strikeouts (pitcher)

Michael Lorenzen: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · COL · MLB · baseline 3.5/game (2026, 19 games)
3.3
Median
0.8-6.4
80% range
1.8-5.0
50% range
7.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.36.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+88%
2.0+71%
3.0+55%
4.0+39%
5.0+26%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Michael Lorenzen player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts