dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Sean Manaea strikeouts (pitcher)

Sean Manaea: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · NYM · MLB · baseline 3.6/game (2026, 18 games)
3.3
Median
0.9-6.5
80% range
1.8-5.1
50% range
7.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.36.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+88%
2.0+72%
3.0+56%
4.0+39%
5.0+26%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sean Manaea player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts