dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Clarke Schmidt strikeouts (pitcher)

Clarke Schmidt: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · NYY · MLB · baseline 5.2/game (2025, 14 games)
5.1
Median
2.1-8.6
80% range
3.4-6.7
50% range
9.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.15.18.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+80%
4.0+67%
5.0+51%
6.0+35%
7.0+22%
8.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Clarke Schmidt player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts